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SCIENCE OF
TSUNAMI HAZARDS
The International Journal of the Tsunami Society
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Tsunami Society
International Journal
SCIENCE OF TSUNAMI HAZARDS
ISSUES - Year 2017
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VOLUME 36 NUMBER 4 (December 2917)
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THREE-DIMENSIONAL NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF TSUNAMI WAVES BASED ON THE NAVIER-STOKES EQUATIONS
Andrey Kozelkov (1,2), Valentin Efremov (3), Andrey Kurkin( 2,4), Efim Pelinovsky( 2,5),
NataliyaTarasova (1) & Dmitry Strelets (6)
1 Russian Federal Nuclear Center, All-Russian Scientific Research Institute of Experimental Physics, Sarov, Russia
2 Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University named after R. E. Alekseev, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia
3 Joint Stock Company ‘Instrument Engineering Design Bureau named after Academician A.G. Shipunov’, Tula, Russia
4 Institute of Space Technologies, Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, Russia
5 Institute of Applied Physics, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia
6 Moscow Aviation Institute, Moscow, Russia
ABSTRACT
A numerical algorithm of solving the three-dimensional system of Navier-Stokes equations to simulate free surface waves and flows with gravity is presented. The main problem here is to ensure that the gravity force is properly accounted in the presence of discontinuities in the medium density. The task is made more complicated due the use of unstructured computational grids with collocated placement of unknown quantities and splitting algorithms based on SIMPLE-type methods. To obtain correctly the hydrostatic pressure, it is suggested that the contribution of the gravitational force in the equation for pressure should be distinguished explicitly; the latter being calculated by using the solution of the two-phase medium gravitational balance problem. To ensure the balance of the gravity force and the pressure gradient in the case of rest an algorithm in which the pressure gradient in the equation of motion is replaced by a modification considering the gravitational force action is suggested. This method is demonstrated by the example of tsunami wave propagation in the real water area of the World Ocean.
THE 7.8 MW EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI OF 16th April 2916 IN ECUADOR: Seismic Evaluation, Geological Field Survey and Economic Implications
Theofilos Toulkeridis ( 1*) , Kervin Chunga (2), Willington Rentería (3), Fabian Rodriguez1,(4), Fernando Mato (1), Sissy Nikolaou (5), Mario Cruz D´Howitt (1), Davide Besenzon (6) , Hugo Ruiz1, Humberto
Parra (1) and Xavier Vera-Grunauer (7,8)
1 Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, Sangolquí, Ecuador
2 Universidad Estatal Península Santa Elena, Facultad de Ciencias de la Ingeniería, La Libertad, Ecuador.
3 Instituto Oceanográfico de la Armada del Ecuador (INOCAR), Guayaquil, Ecuador
4 Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador (PUCE), Facultad de Economía, Quito, Ecuador
5 WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff, New York City, USA
6 Escuela Superior Politecnica del Litoral, Facultad de Ingeniería en Ciencias de la Tierra, Guayaquil, Ecuador
7 Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Católica de Santiago de Guayaquil (UCSG), Guayaquil, Ecuador
8 Geoestudios, SA, Guayaquil, Ecuador
ABSTRACT
We evaluated the recent earthquake and tsunami responsible for considerable damage and 663 deaths
due to a 7.8Mw movement on the 16th of April 2016. The seismic event filled tens of thousands in
refugee camps and affected some two million persons directly. The potential of high losses and
damage with a total of 29,672 properties, including family houses, is also given by the fact that the
infrastructure of the fishing, tourism and other industries and the movement to live along the beaches,
have been highly developed within the last decades along the Ecuadorian coasts. The geological
survey and determination of field data were performed three days after the main seismic event,
allowing to obtain 290 data coseismic effects on the ground that allowed to evaluate the maximum
macroseismic intensities as well as the predominant geomorphological features.The results of these
sampling stations allowed to reconstruct a geological map with isoseismals fields of intensities. With
all the compiled and recorded coseismic data in the field of higher macroseismic intensities, weall the compiled and recorded coseismic data in the field of higher macroseismic intensities, weproceeded to produce a map of intensities applying the definitions and degrees of the ESI 2007 scale. We also evaluated the distribution and intensities of the aftershocks demonstrating the spatialtemporal affinities. The occurred tsunami, although less destructive than previous in the same region has been documented with all details available. The economical assessment included in this study concludes that this earthquake impacted a large part of a variety of coastal cities destroying between 70 and 80% of some close-by villages and cities with a distance of 140-150 km of the epicenter, which suffered damages of their buildings within 40 to 55%, in which lines of electricity transmission, infrastructure of water supply, hospitals, schools, private and public buildings, main roads and highways have been severely affected or even completely destroyed. The costs of the damages of the mentioned infrastructure are summing up an approximate loss of some 3.3 billion USD, being equivalent to 3.31 % of the Ecuadorian GDP. In addition to losses in infrastructure and properties, over 28 thousand jobs were lost and about 300
million US$ in trade and businesses.
Keywords: Earthquake, Tsunami, seismic damage, economic losses, Ecuador
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SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF ENERGY DISTRIBUTION AT TSUNAMI WAVE PROPAGATION IN OKHOTSK SEA BASIN
Alexandr RASSADIN (1) , Artem TUGARYOV (1), Broneslav KISELMAN (1), Raissa MAZOVA (1)
And Leopold LOBKOVSKY (2)
1 R.E.Alekseev Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University, 24 Minin str.,
Nizhny Novgorod 603695 Russia
2 P.P.ShirshovInstitute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, 36 Nakhimovsky ave.,
Moscow, 123456 Russia
ABSTRACT
The presence of residual subduction zone under Kuril island arc makes a region of
Kuril ridge islands be potential seismic-danger since underwater earthquakes in subduction
zone with magnitude ? > 6 are usually tsunamigenic. Potential strong earthquakes near the
Kuril-Kamchatka trench passes along Kuril island, and tsunami generated by them carry a
greater risk while passing through Bussol and Krusenstern straits for all Okhotsk seashore
including the Sakhalin coast where now taking place a rising of infrastructure development
connected with development an oil and gas industry. In the history, a few occasions of
tsunami generation near the Sakhalin coast, caused by earthquakes in Kuril ridge region had
been recorded (see, e.g. [1]) Such occasion taken place while strongest earthquake occurs recently near the
Simushir island (15 November 2006). This earthquake and tsunami were predicted half of
year before the event: while marine expedition clarified structure and size of possible
undersea source in the area of seismic gap in Middle Kuril region. Then, the numerical simulation of tsunami generation and propagation was performed using keyboard model of an earthquake. Since not all seismic gap area was activated, it’s interesting to perform a numerical modeling of potential catastrophic earthquake and tsunami in residual seismic gapof Middle Kuril and compare results with similar scenario of earthquake and tsunami for
hypothetical source placed in inactive part of seismic gap. In this paper, such modeling was
performed based on keyboard model of tsunamigenic earthquakes [2]. Calculation was
performed using nonlinear shallow water equations and considering bottom dissipation.
Spectral analysis of tsunami wave field in this model gives new possibilities for
determination of energy characteristics of tsunami in the whole modeling area.
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INCIPIENT EVALUATION OF TEMPORAL EL NINO AND OTHER CLIMATIC ANOMALIES IN TRIGGERING EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMIS - Case Study: The Earthquake and Tsunami of 16th April 2016 in Ecuador
George Pararas-Carayannis (1) & Peter Zoll (2)
1Tsunami Society International,
2 CIO I-MAG STS
ABSTRACT
The present study provides an incipient, cursory evaluation of the unusually strong 2015-2016 El
Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and of the quasi-periodic fluctuation and anomalies of sea surface
temperature (SST) across the equatorial Pacific during that period, as being the cause for the
prolonged rainfall and flooding of coastal valleys near Guayaquil and Esmeraldas in Ecuador in
December 2015, as well as in late January and February 2016 – which proceeded the 16 April, 2016
tsunamigenic earthquake in Ecuador. Also examined is the seasonality of recent tsunamigenic and
non-tsunamigenic earthquakes in Ecuador and elsewhere in South America, in relation to strong
ENSO and documented SST Anomalies - as well as to the differently proposed mechanisms that may
cause them in Ecuador and elsewhere, with climatic changes induced by the global impact of volcanic
explosions and by other terrestrial and extraterrestrial influences, as to impacts they may have on the
geostrophic circulation and surface water temperatures of oceanic currents, which perhaps are also
associated with the cycles of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillations (AMO’s) of small water temperature
differences which may result in clusters of hurricanes generated near the earth’s oceanic equatorial
zones. Regarding the 7.8 Mw earthquake and tsunami of 16 April 2016 in Ecuador and based on the above
stated partial data, the present study postulates that the excessive volume and weight of flood-waters
retained in the coastal crustal layers following the cataclysmic rains of late 2015 and early 2016,
triggered an earlier rupture of the already strained offshore fault near the city of Muisne. As an
additional contributing mechanism of earthquake and tsunami generation, the evaluation proposes that
the extreme volume and weight of floodwaters may have also altered temporarily the crustal
buoyancy characteristics of the intersecting Carnegie Ridge with the South America continent along the central part of the country. Additionally examined and evaluated are the unusual clusters of the 16 April 2016 event(s) and the three-dimensional and temporal anomalous distribution of aftershocks - which did not follow a typical pattern as would have been expected. Similarly atypical was the distribution of observed Modified Mercalli high intensities of this earthquake over a rather large and separated geographical area that stretched more than 200 km along the Ecuadorian coastline.
Keywords: Climatic Anomalies; El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO); Triggering Earthquakes;
Precursor Events; Earthquake and Tsunami of 16th April 2016 in Ecuador.
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ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF RECOVERING NATURAL PROTECTION WITH CONCURRENT RELOCATION OF THE POPULATION THREATENED BY TSUNAMI HAZARDS IN CENTRAL COASTAL ECUADOR
Fabián Rodríguez Espinosa (¹,²); Theofilos Toulkeridis (¹*), Rodolfo Salazar Martínez (1,3); Jessica Cueva
Girón(1), Adriana Taipe Quispe (1), Lucía Vernaza Quiñonez (4), Oswaldo Padilla Almeida (¹), Fernando Mato (1),
Mario Cruz D’Howitt (¹), Humberto Parra (1), Washington Sandoval (¹) and Willington Rentería (5)
1 Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, Sangolquí, ECUADOR.
2 Facultad de Economía, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador, Quito, ECUADOR.
3 Laboratorio do Territorio, Universidad de Santiago de Compostela, Lugo, ESPAÑA.
4 Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador Sede Esmeraldas – PUCESE, Esmeraldas, ECUADOR.
5 Instituto Oceanográfico de la Armada INOCAR, Guayaquil, ECUADOR.
ABSTRACT
Tsunamis are destructive forces which threaten life, social infrastructure and production, resulting in
enormous economic losses. In the last two decades destructive tsunamis as those in Indonesia (2004),
Japan (2011) and Chile (2010 and 2015), caused more than 366,353 deaths and economic losses over
355 billions US$. Our present study focuses on a theoretical case of economic and human losses that
tsunami impact can have in Muisne, along the central Ecuadorian coast. Using a cost benefit analysis
(BCA) framework, we estimate the cost of recovery of a mangrove ecosystem in Muisne, where
earthquakes with magnitudes up to 8.8 Mw can generate tsunamis with run-ups up to 43 meters.
Economic benefits of environmental goods and services from Muisne mangroves are estimated to
reach 16.7 US$ million/year. To maintain local wellbeing and businesses in the region, it is estimated
that the mangrove recovery costs may reach up to 7.3 million US$. In terms of preventing loss human
loss of life and maintaining human wellbeing, we calculate the value of community relocation to be
approximately 93.2 million US$. Therefore, the total economic benefits from a recovering the Muisne
ecosystem would be around 109.9 million US$ and the benefit/cost ratio is B⁄C=1.16, meaning that
the recovery of the Muisne mangroves has a higher value than resettlement costs, and that makes good
public policy sense.
Keywords: Tsunami strike, Resettlement, Mangrove ecosystem recovery, Benefit / cost ratio, Ecuador
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VOLUME 36 Number 3 (September 2017)
REVIEW OF EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMI RECORDS AND CHARACTERIZATION OF CAPABLE FAULTS ON THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF ECUADOR
Kervin Chunga1*, TheofilosToulkeridis2*, Xavier Vera-Grunauer3-4, Marllelis Gutierrez1, Nestor Cahuana4, Alamir Alvarez1
1Universidad Estatal Península Santa Elena, Facultad de Ciencias de la Ingeniería. Ecuador
2Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, Sangolquí, Quito, Ecuador.
3Universidad Católica de Santiago de Guayaquil, Facultad de Ingeniería, Ecuador.
4Geoestudios S.A., Guayaquil, Ecuador
ABSTRACT
There are only few documented moderate to strong earthquakes associated with active tectonics of capable crustal faults in Ecuador’s northwestern coastal region. The short seismic record begins with the great earthquake and tsunami on January 31, 1906 (Mw 8.8), followed by other destructive earthquakes and tsunamis in the subduction zone, which are recorded on January 19, 1958 (Mw 7.6) and December 12, 1979 (Mw 7.7). Furthermore, modest earthquakes from capable faults have been registered on April 9, 1976 (Mw 6.7), January 2, 1981 (Mw 5.9), June 25, 1989 (Mw 6.3), April 20, 2016 (Mw 6.0) and January 31, 2017 (Mw 5.5, MLv 5.7). Earthquakes of minor magnitude have not been considered in this study, as they lack to cause coseismic ground effects. In this study, a catalog of geological fault has been delineated with 41 segments of capable and active faults on the sea floor and inland segments of Esmeraldas and Manabí provinces, as the instrumental seismic record does not provide sufficient information to evaluate the seismic risk due to faults capable of generating earthquakes larger than Mw≥6. This methodological approach allowed to estimate the seismicity levels in the order of 6.0≤Mw≤7.3 and rock peak ground accelerations in the order of 0.42g 0.26g. These values have been obtained from empirical regression equations applied to the length of capable geological faults. The seismogenic structure of the subduction zone is able to generate earthquakes and subsequently tsunamis in the order of 8.2≤Mw≤9.0, and may cause coseismic ground damage to the close-by (82km), highly-populated city of Esmeraldas. This structural geological analysis is able to provide new insights, which need to be considered in studies of seismic hazards and particularly in the generation of control spectra for vertical as well as horizontal components from capable faults.
Keywords: Earthquake and tsunami hazard, capable fault, Ecuador’s northwestern coast.
Vol 36. No. 3, page 100 (2017)
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THE MISSING LINK IN EL NIÑO’S PHENOMENON GENERATION
Fernando Mato1*, TheofilosToulkeridis2
1 Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, Sangolquí, Quito, Ecuador
ABSTRACT
The study of the El Niño phenomenon has been addressed for decades by means of the well-known ocean-atmosphere coupling model described by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. However, its generation mechanism has remained unknown until now, hindering the forecast of such occurrence and the degree of its intensity. Our research provides for the first time the discovery of a clear correlation pattern between a temporal inmense increase in seismicity at localized regions inside the Pacific Plate, triggered by previous telluric movements at the plate boundaries, leading to the subsequent emergence of El Niño’s extraordinary events. Thus, we were able to provide supported evidence of such extraordinary climatic episodes occur due to the increase of magmatic activity in the seafloor inside the Pacific Plate, establishing the asthenosphere ocean coupling mechanism that triggers them. Furthermore, our research provides three additional major discoveries suggesting the need of rethinking both, the ENSO and the usual climate models themselves. These would be that the asthenosphere-ocean coupling mechanism becomes the major mode in the inter-annual variability of ENSO, providing the missing link in the generation of El Niño extraordinary events; the origin of the two modes of manifestation, the CP-El Niño and the EP-El Niño; and the evidence that the Southern Oscillation phenomenon governs the secondary mode of the inter-annual variability of the ENSO, generating the weak and moderate episodes of El Niño phenomenon.
Keywords: Climate, El Niño, ENSO, CP-El Niño, EP-El Niño, Seismicity.
Vol 36. No. 3, page 128 (2017)
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MANIFESTATION OF THE 1963 URUP TSUNAMI ON SAKHALIN: Observations and Modeling
Andrey Zaytsev1,2), Irina Kostenko1), Andrey Kurkin2,3), Efim Pelinovsky2,4,5)
& George Pararas-Carayannis 6
- Special Research Bureau for Automation of Marine Researches, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Russia
- Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University n.a. R. Alekseev, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia
- Institute of Space Technologies, Peoples' Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), Moscow, Russia
- Institute of Applied Physics, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia
- National Research University – Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
- Tsunami Society International, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
ABSTRACT
In the history of instrumental observations, the tsunami of 1963 generated in the vicinity of Urup in the Kuril Islands had the highest runup heights on the coasts of Sakhalin Island. It was generated by a strong earthquake which had a moment magnitude Mw 8.1. The present study summarizes the known observations of this event along the coasts of Sakhalin, in the Hawaiian Islands and elsewhere in the Pacific Ocean. Additionally, the prestent study includes the numerical simulation of this 1963 tsunami event in the framework of nonlinear shallow water theory. The results of the numerical calculations are in good agreement with the observational data.
Vol 36. No. 3, page 145 (2017)
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COMPARISON OF METHODS FOR SIMULATING TSUNAMI RUN-UP THROUGH COASTAL FORESTS
Benazir1, Radianta Triatmadja2*, Adam Pamudji Rahardjo2, and Nur Yuwono2
1Ph.D Student at Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia.
2Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia.
ABSTRACT
The research is aimed at reviewing two numerical methods for modeling the effect of coastal forest on tsunami run-up and to propose an alternative approach. Two methods for modeling the effect of coastal forest namely the Constant Roughness Model (CRM) and Equivalent Roughness Model (ERM) simulate the effect of the forest by using an artificial Manning roughness coefficient. An alternative approach that simulates each of the trees as a vertical square column is introduced. Simulations were carried out with variations of forest density and layout pattern of the trees. The numerical model was validated using an existing data series of tsunami run-up without forest protection. The study indicated that the alternative method is in good agreement with ERM method for low forest density. At higher density and when the trees were planted in a zigzag pattern, the ERM produced significantly higher run-up. For a zigzag pattern and at 50% forest densities which represents a water tight wall, both the ERM and CRM methods produced relatively high run-up which should not happen theoretically. The alternative method, on the other hand, reflected the entire tsunami. In reality, housing complex can be considered and simulated as forest with various size and layout of obstacles where the alternative approach is applicable. The alternative method is more accurate than the existing methods for simulating a coastal forest for tsunami mitigation but consumes considerably more computational time.
Keywords: modeling; long wave; vegetation; greenbelt; density; layout; dam break.
Vol 36. No. 3, page 167 (2017)
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VOLUME 36 Number 2 (June 2017)
NUMERICAL MODELING OF MOON ASTEROID IMPACTS - TSUNAMIS ON THE MOON
Charles L. Mader - Mader Consulting Co.- Honolulu, HI 96825 U.S.A.
ABSTRACT
Asteroid impacts on the moon were modeled using the full Navier-Stokes AMR Eulerian compressible hydrodynamic code called MAGNS. The size of the cavity and its time history are strongly dependent upon the strength characteristics of the moon rock. The initial impact pressures and temperatures are well above shock melting conditions at the impact surface of the moon. The formation of a moon crater, its rings and mascon is modeled.
Keywords: Modeling, Navier-Stokes, Eulerian, moon crater, crater rings.
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SIMULATION OF SCOURING AROUND A VERTICAL CYLINDER DUE TO TSUNAMI
Kuswandi 1, Radianta Triatmadja 2*, Istiarto 2
1 PhD Student, Department of Civil and Environment Engineering, Faculty of Engineering,
Universitas Gadjah Mada, INDONESIA
2 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas
Gadjah Mada, INDONESIA.
1,2 Member of Tsunami Research Group, Universitas Gadjah Mada, INDONESIA
ABSTRACT
Local scour due to tsunami is damaging especially on shallow foundation. Although relatively in a short duration, tsunami attack may scour material around buildings that led to destruction. A number of formulae on local scouring due to flood and tsunami have been available. The local scouring pattern and depth produced by tsunami may be affected by tsunami duration and tsunami surge Froude number and hence different to that resulted by flood which normally have much longer duration and lower Froude number. The research used a relatively short flume to create short duration tsunami surge that run-up on 1:20 beach slope and hit a vertical cylinder on land. Both the pattern and the depth of local scouring around the cylinder were observed and the results were compared with similar research but with different tsunami surge characteristic. It was shown that the maximum scour depth was significantly deeper than the final scour depth. When compared with other experimental study of local scour due to tsunami, the present local scour maximum depth seemed to be slightly less. This could have been caused by the relatively short duration of the present experiment. It was also found that the sidewall effect was insignificant when the ratio of cylinder diameter to the flume width was less then approximately 0.15.
Keywords: Tsunami, scouring, maximum depth, numerical model, physical model, dam break
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BENCHMARK SOLUTIONS FOR TSUNAMI WAVE FRONTS AND RAYS - PART 2: PARABOLIC BOTTOM TOPOGRAPHY
Andrey. G. Marchuk
Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, Siberian Division of
Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, RUSSIA
Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, Siberian Division of Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia
ABSTRACT
In this paper, the kinematics of the tsunami wave ray and the wave front in the area, where the depth increases proportional to the squared distance to the straight shoreline, is studied. The exact analytical solution for the wave-ray trajectory above the parabolic bottom topography has been derived. This solution gives the possibility to determine in the ray approximation the tsunami wave heights in an area with the parabolic bottom topography. The distribution of the wave-height maxima in the area with such a bathymetry is compared to that obtained with a shallow-water model. All the exact solutions obtained can be used for testing numerical algorithms.
Key words: tsunami propagation, shallow-water equations, wave ray, wave front kinematics
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INVESTIGATION OF b-VALUE VARIATIONS IN THE AFRICAN AND PARTS OF EURASIAN PLATES
1. Awoyemi, M. O., 2. Hammed O.S., 1. Shode, O. H., 4. Olurin, O.T., 2. Igboama, W.N.
and 3. Fatoba, J.O.
1. Department of Physics, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, NIGERIA.
2. Department of Physics, Federal University, Oye Ekiti, NIGERIA.
3. Department of Geophysics, Federal University, Oye Ekiti, NIGERIA.
4. Department of Physics, Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, NIGERIA.
ABSTRACT
Numerous earthquakes have occurred along the collision zones of the African and parts of Eurasian plates. Some of these earthquakes along these zones have generated tsunamis. To mitigate this hazard, knowledge of b-values of the Gutenberg – Richter relation for tectonic earthquakes in the African and parts of Eurasian plates is essential. The temporal variations of b-values were evaluated using sliding time windows with each window containing a total of 100 events with a view to utilizing the results as a precursor for the earthquake occurrence. The spatial variation of b-values of the study area was also delineated by dividing it into grids and calculating the b-values for each grid using constant radius and constant number of events. Results obtained from the temporal variation of b-values showed that earthquakes of large magnitudes occurred when the b-values were low while earthquakes of small magnitudes occurred when the b-values were high throughout the study period. The results of the spatial distribution of b-values also showed that earthquakes of large magnitudes occurred in areas of low b-values while earthquakes of small magnitudes occurred in areas of high b-values. The study therefore concluded that the temporal and spatial variations of b-values might be considered as a precursor for earthquake prediction.
Keywords: b-value, tsunami, Precursor, Plates, Earthquake, Tectonics.
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VOLUME 36 Number 1 (February 2017)
COASTAL MONITORING OF THE OKHOTSK SEA USING AN AUTONOMOUS MOBILE ROBOT
V. Beliakov1), P. Beresnev1), V. Filatov1), A. Kurkin1), V. Makarov1), E. Pelinovsky1,2), D. Tugin1), A. Zaytsev3) and D. Zeziulin1)
1) Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University n.a. R.E. Alekseev, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia
2) Institute of Applied Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia
3) Special Research Bureau for Automation of Marine Researches, Far Eastern Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Uzhno-Sakhalinsk, Russia
ABSTRACT
Need of development of modern coastal infrastructure dictates strict requirements to quality of operational and statistical information about the wave modes of a port bay that is impossible without carrying out long high-precision supervision and development of systems of monitoring. Fixed monitoring of the dangerous marine hazards in coastal areas, port bays is of great scientific interest and has the expressed applied aspect connected with safety in zones of marine activities. Results of scientific work shall allow to reduce damage from these phenomena due to the correct planning of business and industrial activity.
Keywords: coastal monitoring, marine hazards, Okhotsk Sea,Sakhalin Island, autonomous mobile robot.
CONTRASTING RESULTS OF POTENTIAL TSUNAMI HAZARDS IN MUISNE, CENTRAL COAST OF ECUADOR
Theofilos Toulkeridis¹, Humberto Parra1, Fernando Mato1, Mario Cruz D’Howitt¹, Washington Sandoval¹, Oswaldo Padilla Almeida¹, Willington Rentería2, Fabián Rodríguez Espinosa1,3, Rodolfo Salazar Martínez1,4; Jessica Cueva Girón1, Adriana Taipe Quispe1, Lucía Bernaza Quiñonez5
1Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, Sangolquí, Ecuador.
2Instituto Oceanográfico de la Armada INOCAR, Guayaquil, Ecuador
2Facultad de Economía, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador, Quito, Ecuador.
3Laboratorio do Territorio, Universidad de Santiago de Compostela, Lugo, España.
4Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador Sede Esmeraldas – PUCESE, Esmeraldas, Ecuador.
ABSTRACT
After the 7.8 Mw Earthquake occurred in Ecuador on April 16 of 2016, the Ecuadorian Government declared the whole Island of Muisne into a risk hazard zone by a potential Tsunami impact and subsequent flooding. Based on the emitted resolution, human settlements in the affected area were prohibited, and a resettlement project in the village of Bunche is currently taking place. Nonetheless, our study demonstrates that the inundation chart used to release the mentioned resolution underestimate the flooding area in case of a real Tsunami impact. To support this conclusion, we present a new inundation chart for the three more probable scenarios, based on historical tsunami records and a seismic hazard assessment study in central coastal Ecuador.
Keywords: Tsunami modeling, seismic hazard, worst case scenario, GIS, relocation
USE OF THE JOKO TINGKIR SOFTWARE FOR RAPID DETERMINATION OF TSUNAMI FAULTING PARAMETERS RESULTING FROM THE Mw-7.8 EARTHQUAKE OF MARCH 2, 2016, IN SOUTHERN SUMATRA
Madlazim
Physics Department, Mathematics and Science Faculty,
Universitas Negeri Surabaya. INDONESIA
Email: madlazim@unesa.ac.id
ABSTRACT
The purpose of this research was to use the Joko Tingkir software, to measure rapidly tsunami-faulting parameters of the March 2, 2016, earthquake (Mw = 7.8) off the coast of Southern Sumatra. The five parameters that needed measurement were the quake’s rupture duration (Tdur), the dominant period Td), the exceedance duration of 50 seconds (T50Ex), the multiplication between rupture duration and the dominant period (Tdur x Td), and the multiplication exceedance duration and dominant period (T50Ex x Td). The methodology of measuring these parameters is based on the direct analysis of the locally measured seismic broadband vertical components, without inversion. The seismographic data used for this study was obtained from 18 seismic stations of the BMKG network. The tsunami parameters thresholds used by the Joko Tingkir software were: Tdur = 65 s, Td = 10 s, T50Ex = 1, Tdur x Td =650 s2 and T50Ex x Td = 10 s. Earthquakes that have three or more parameters that are equal or bigger than these threshold values, are known to be associated with tsunami generation. Rapid measurements of parameters - in less than 4 minutes after the quake’s origin time - that have values of Tdur = 65.70, Td = 3.60, T50Ex = 0.13, Tdur x T50Ex = 234.00 and T50Ex x Td = 0.48, do not typically generate tsunamis.
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SCIENCE OF TSUNAMI HAZARDS is a CERTIFIED OPEN ACCESS Journal included in the prestigious international academic journal database DOAJ, maintained by the University of Lund in Sweden with the support of the European Union. SCIENCE OF TSUNAMI HAZARDS is also preserved, archived and disseminated by the National Library, The Hague, NETHERLANDS, the Library of Congress, Washington D.C., USA, the Electronic Library of Los Alamos, National Laboratory, New Mexico, USA, the EBSCO Publishing databases and ELSEVIER Publishing in Amsterdam. The vast dissemination gives the journal additional global exposure and readership in 90% of the academic institutions worldwide, including nation-wide access to databases in more than 70 countries.
OBJECTIVE: Tsunami Society International publishes this interdisciplinary journal to increase and disseminate knowledge about tsunamis and their hazards.
DISCLAIMER: Although the articles in SCIENCE OF TSUNAMI HAZARDS have been technically reviewed by peers, Tsunami Society International is not responsible for the veracity of any statement, opinion or consequences.
EDITORIAL STAFF
Dr. George Pararas-Carayannis, Editor
mailto:drgeorgepc@yahoo.com
EDITORIAL BOARD
Dr. Charles MADER, Mader Consulting Co., Colorado, New Mexico, Hawaii, USA
Dr. Hermann FRITZ, Georgia Institute of Technology, USA
Prof. George CURTIS, University of Hawaii -Hilo, USA
Dr. Tad S. MURTY, University of Ottawa, CANADA
Dr. Zygmunt KOWALIK, University of Alaska, USA
Dr. Galen GISLER, NORWAY
Prof. Kam Tim CHAU, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, HONG KONG
Dr. Jochen BUNDSCHUH, (ICE) COSTA RICA, Royal Institute of Technology, SWEDEN
Dr. Yurii SHOKIN, Novosibirsk, Russian Federation
Dr. Radianta Triatmadja - Tsunami Research Group, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
TSUNAMI SOCIETY INTERNATIONAL, OFFICERS
Dr. George Pararas-Carayannis, President;
Dr. Tad Murty, Vice President;
Dr. Carolyn Forbes, Secretary/Treasurer.
Submit manuscripts of research papers, notes or letters to the Editor. If a research paper is accepted for publication the author(s) must submit a scan-ready manuscript, a Doc, TeX or a PDF file in the journal format. Issues of the journal are published electronically in PDF format. There is a minimal publication fee for authors who are members of Tsunami Society International for three years and slightly higher for non-members. Tsunami Society International members are notified by e-mail when a new issue is available. Permission to use figures, tables and brief excerpts from this journal in scientific and educational works is granted provided that the source is acknowledged.
Recent and all past journal issues are available at: http://www.TsunamiSociety.org CD-ROMs of past volumes may be purchased by contacting Tsunami Society International at postmaster@tsunamisociety.org Issues of the journal from 1982 thru 2005 are also available in PDF format at the U.S. Los Alamos National Laboratory Library http://epubs.lanl.gov/tsunami/
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All Issues of Science of Tsunami Hazards prior to 2006 are also available in pdf format at mirror site
http://epubs.lanl.gov/tsunami/
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SCIENCE OF
TSUNAMI HAZARDS
Journal of Tsunami Society International
ISSN 8755-6839
Abstracts, full papers and individual volumes
All Past Issues
from 1982 - archived by volume, title and names of authors
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SCIENCE OF TSUNAMI HAZARDS
Journal of Tsunami Society International
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© 2017 Tsunami Society International- Allrights reserved
Last update: DEC 7, 2017
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